To: Yang Gang
Cc: Andrew Yang
From: Campaign Manager Zach Graumann
Date: November 8, 2019
Subject: 2020 Dem. Race Wide Open, Andrew Yang Beginning to Break Out
It’s less than 3 months to the Iowa Caucuses and I want to give you an update on the campaign.
Yesterday, we’ve launched a seven-figure paid television ad in Iowa, taking to the airwaves in the first-in-nation caucus state for the first time. Today, Andrew is in Concord, NH, to file the paperwork to officially appear on the ballot of the New Hampshire primary.
And I haven’t even gotten to the exciting stuff yet.
Most early state Dem. primary voters remain uncommitted while Andrew Yang is on the rise.
With less than 90 days until the Iowa caucuses, most early state voters remain uncommitted. Recent polling in Iowa found that 65% of Democratic Iowa caucus-goers said they could still be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate, and another recent poll found that 55% of Nevada Democratic caucus-goers might consider another candidate. In New Hampshire, 57% of likely Democratic primary voters were still trying to decide for whom to vote (while another 21% were only “leaning” towards any particular candidate). Suffice to say, the early state Democratic primaries and caucuses remain highly fluid today.
After four strong Democratic debate performances, combined with our resources now being deployed on the airwaves, digital, and through direct mail, Andrew’s forward-looking vision of a New Way Forward for America is beginning to break through. We’re building a grassroots movement that continues to power Andrew’s rise as more and more voters are beginning to tune in and make up their minds.
Yang’s favorable growth is the highest of any candidate in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Late October, polling in New Hampshire found that Andrew’s net favorability margin has grown by 15 points since July, outpacing all of his opponents. Similarly, mid-October polling in South Carolina found his net favorable rating had increased by 9 points, again, outpacing all other contenders.
His numbers have also improved measurably since Morning Consult polling at the end of August that found Yang at 1% across all four early primary states. CNN polling in late October placed Yang at 5% in New Hampshire, Emerson Polling had him at 5% in Nevada at the beginning of November and 5% in Iowa in mid-October, and Change Research had Yang at 4% in South Carolina in mid-October.
Andrew has built a strong base among younger Democratic caucus-goers. For instance, he outpaces Joe Biden by 7 points among voters under age 45 in Iowa based on the most recent New York Times poll.
Prior to yesterday, in the absence of a strong paid communications program, Andrew’s growth has occurred organically. Now, we’re about to kick into the next gear. Our campaign is the only one trending upwards. All the other campaigns in this race are either trying to maintain where they are, reallocating resources and staff to attempt to stay in the race, or dropping out.
At the beginning of this journey, I couldn’t ask for a better position to be in than the one we’re in right now. I’m excited about what we’re about to achieve in the coming months and I hope you all are too.